Forecasting

On February 24, 2002, as the scandal of the derivative-soaked Enron Corporation unfolded, Daniel Altman wrote, "The veil of complexity, whose weave is tightening as sophisticated derivatives evolve and proliferate, poses subtle risks to the financial system -- risks that are impossible to quantify, sometimes even to identify." He stood almost alone in those years in such coverage.
Todd Gitlin, April 2013

Daniel Altman also saw what was coming. In his book he described a place without taxes or a social safety net, where rich and poor live in different financial worlds. "It's coming to America," he wrote. Most likely he would not have been surprised recently when firefighters in rural Tennessee would let a home burn to the ground because the homeowner hadn't paid a $75 fee.
Bill Moyers, November 2010

Here are some of Daniel Altman's economic predictions from the last economic cycle, which ran from 2001 to 2007. His latest forecasts for the long-term future of the global economy are in his book Outrageous Fortunes.

2002: Systemic risk from derivatives trading will threaten financial markets

2003: The Federal Reserve will lose much of its effectiveness by pushing interest rates to zero

2003: Foreign aid will move to an investment-based approach

2004: The American tax burden will shift from capital to labor, exacerbating inequality and reducing mobility

2005: Flouting fiscal rules will come back to bite the euro zone's big economies in a bailout of Greece

2005: Britain's Conservatives will slash government spending regardless of economic efficiency

2005: Cuts in scientific research will hurt American economic competitiveness

2005: Ben Bernanke will resort to radical action during a crisis as chairman of the Federal Reserve

2006: China will not float its currency

2007: Neglected infrastructure will slow long-term growth in the United States